The predictive power of admission exam score on success in university results from a big-scale longitudinal research
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Abstract
The examination of the factors behind academic success dates back nearly fifty years (Tinto, 1975), but due to the diversity of universities and students and the complex nature of academic success, it is difficult to create a general model (Clercq et al., 2017). The characteristics of the relationship between the first-year academic performance and prior academic achievement was analysed. It was explored how reliably admission score can predict graduation from university based on university level and faculty by faculty analyses. During this examination besides admission score academic performance of the first year was accounted for as well. Research was conducted among the students (N=3248) admitted to the UFSZ in 2017, as well as the follow-up data of the students. Data was collected through the e-Dia system (Molnár and Csapó, 2019). We performed our analysis using Pearson correlation and structural equations (SEM). Based on the results of the longitudinal research there is a positive relationship between admission score and academic performance at university level. The faculty-level analysis confirmed that university students cannot be treated as a homogeneous group. It can be concluded that the admission score has a low predictive power for obtaining a degree and explains it to a very small extent. Admission score had a moderate predictive power for the credits obtained in the first year. Admission score has a low-medium level of predictive power for first-year academic performance. Significant differences were found between the faculties. To conclude, the focus should be primarily put on university students, who are starting their studies, since a successful first-year university performance has a strong predictive power in terms of obtaining a degree.
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Funding data
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Hungarian Scientific Research Fund
Grant numbers K135727 -
Magyar Tudományos Akadémia
Grant numbers KOZOKT2021-16
References
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