Geopolitikai Szemle

Beszámoló a VIKEK 56. konferenciájáról

Gulyás László — Fri, 06 May 2022 00:00:00 +0200

A Virtuális Intézet Közép-Európa Kutatására, 2021. október 8-án a Szegedi Akadémia Bizottság Székházában (Szeged, Somogyi utca 7.) „XIII. A TÖBB NEMZETISÉGŰ ÁLLAMOKTÓL NAPJAINK GEOPOLITIKÁJÁIG” címmel TUDOMÁNYOS konferenciát rendezett.

The balance of economic transition in Hungary

Domonkos Endre — Fri, 06 May 2022 00:00:00 +0200

Economic transition in Hungary was coupled by the adoption of the “Companies Act” in October 1988, which made it possible to state enterprises to convert themselves either into private company or public limited liability company. This led to the collapse of the socialised sector and paved the way towards the creation of a free market economy. Liberalisation programme started on 1 January 1989, which abolished all restrictions on wages and prices. Measures were also introduced for liberalising import. The first wave of privatization was uncontrolled, which was placed under the direct supervision of the state in the autumn of 1990 by the government coalition of the Hungarian Democratic Forum. The main objective of the conservative cabinet was to promote the emergence of a new Hungarian entrepreneur stratum. From 1994 privatization strategy changed under the Social-Liberal government, which encouraged bigger participation of foreign investors in the process and the simplification of sale procedure. As result of economic transition both the industrial and agricultural production declined, whereas unemployment rate rose to more than 12 percent in 1993. Because of unfavourable external conditions (the collapse of Comecon) the Hungarian economy was hit by depression. Another negative outcome of the transformation process was that gross government debt and inflation rose to an unprecedented level. The objective of my study is to evaluate the impacts of economic transition in Hungary between 1988 and 1998. I will focus on analysing the process of privatization and the macroeconomic consequences of the change of regime. Because of length constraints, I will not highlight the changes made in the political system after 1990.

Cambios geopíticos, países emergentes (BRICS) y la cuestion del subiperialismo en nuestros días

István Szilágyi — Fri, 06 May 2022 00:00:00 +0200

En la segunda mitad del siglo pasado tuvieron lugar los cambios geopolíticos fundamentales e históricos en el mundo. En las tres regiones semiperiféricas del mundo:en Europa del Sur, en América Latina y en Europa Central y Oriental fracasaron los distintos tipos de las dictaduras autoritarias, y burocráticas. Surgieron y pasaron a primer plano de la política mundial los paises emergentes, en particularemente el grupo de los paises de BRICS. En América Latina se terminó la época de los Estados de Excepción y se inició el proceso de democratización y el establecimiento de los sistemas políticos democráticos híbridos. En distintas partes del mundo nacieron y renacieron las integraciones regionales de nuevo tipo (Mercosur, Unasur, CAN, APEC, Organización de Cooperación de Sanghái, la Unión Económica Euroasiática, etc.). Cambiaron las relaciones internacionales. Terminó el mundo bipolar y se inició el proceso de la construcción del mundo multipolar. Simultaneamente con estos procesos y fenómenos mencionados ha sido reconsiderado en los últimos años el concepto del subimperialismo, elaborado por Ruy Mauro Marini en la década del 70. Plantea la cuestión: ¿que vigencia y que actualidad tiene el concepto y el pensamiento de Ruy Mauro Marini en nuestros días? Y entenderse este concepto para describir e interpretar los procesos y fenómenos de medio siglo después. Y surge la cuestión: como se puede caracterizar a Brasil: ¿es un subimperialismo y/o una gran potencia? El artículo se trata de estas cuestiones teóricas.

A COVID-19 járvány nyomán formálódó szemléletváltás elemeinek megjelenése a 2020. évi uniós válságkezelés, valamint a 2020-ban közzétett új uniós iparstratégia dokumentumaiban

Szabó Zoltán Tamás, Forgó Gábor, Alpek B. Levente — Fri, 06 May 2022 00:00:00 +0200

This article aims to provide a review about how the shift in economic strategy, partly in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, is reflected in the European Union’s new industrial strategy and to examine the elements of this discourse in the EU’s 2020 crisis management.
In addition to the analisys of the EU crisis response, we are going tot o analyze the crisis management of Germany and Italy, the two largest industries in the European Union. The significance of the separate examination of these two countries is given by the fact that Koppány’s (2020) calculations of the world model of supply and demand-driven input-output show that the performance of the Hungarian economy is the most sensitive to the turbulence of the German and Italian economies (Koppány [2020]).
The study will examine how the European Union and its two largest industrial powers have reacted to the epidemic in 2020 and will try to identify elements of the new trends observed internationally in the wake of the COVID-19 epidemic (appreciation of security of supply and national security, recognition of the importance of domestic production capacities, digitization, sustainability etc.).
We will put special emphasys to report and examine the measures aimed at the SMEs, due to their key role in the regionalization and sustainability goals of the EU industrial strategy and economy in general.

Gazdasági hadviselés és geopolitika küzdelmek az olaj világpiacán

Glofák Zoltán — Fri, 06 May 2022 00:00:00 +0200

In recent decades, the United States has increasingly used the means of economic warfare in its geopolitical struggles. Among these instruments – in addition to the financial markets – it most often launches geoeconomic attacks in the oil market against its geopolitical adversaries. The United States can cause significant economic damage both for oil exporter (eg. Iran, Venezuela) and oil importer (eg. Cuba, North Korea) countries by restricting their access to oil markets.
This paper analyzes the economic warfare in the oil market between the United States and Iran, Russia, and North Korea. Through these examples this paper demonstrates how the United States organizes and executes geoeconomic attacks in the oil market and how it handles country-specific problems. The United States has the means to organize broad international coalition alongside the oil market sanctions – even in the lack of UN Security Council resolutions.
United Nations has decided on a number of economic sanctions against Iran because of its nuclear program. These sanctions reduced the supply in the world oil market and resulted in about 10-20% price increase, while Iran – despite of the sanctions – found the way to sell significant amount of oil, mainly to China and India.
Russia is a member of the UN Security Council, so no UN sanctions can be imposed on it, nevertheless the United States and its allies launched a geoeconomics assault against Russia after the annexation of the Crimea. Russia was prepared for these economic sanctions and could effectively reduce the negative effects on its oil export, which could even increase after the western sanctions. North Korea is under UN sanctions since 2006 because of its nuclear program. The sanctions refer to oil and oil products as well, but has no significant effect on world oil market and oil price, because North Korea is a relatively small country with low oil consumption.
North Korea is suffering a huge economic burden due to severe restrictions and its only way to circumvent the embargo – according to American accusations – is to smuggle some oil from China and Russia.

A dzsihadista terrorizmus és a bűnözés közti kapcsolat Európában

Ambrus Andrea — Fri, 06 May 2022 00:00:00 +0200

The link between crime and terrorism dates back decades. Among the theories on the relationship between the two phenomena, the works of Alex P. Schmid, the theory of Crime-Terror Continuum of Tamara Makarenko, and the “terror-crime interaction spectrum” model of Louise I. Shelley and John T. Picarelli provide the basis for the theoretical approach.
The study also addresses the issue of terrorism financing by criminal methods. The financing of European terrorists is different from the financing of terrorists in the Middle East. The income of crime allows self-sufficiency, so financial support from a terrorist organization is often not even needed. In addition, jihadist terrorists in many cases choose methods, such as stabbing or ramming, that does not require much expense. Jihadist extremists are mostly involved in not organized crime, and there are indications that extremists fund their activities in part from such petty crimes.
The study also addresses the framework of the relationship between criminals and terrorists, such as recruitment, networking and knowledge transfer. One of the points of contact between criminals and jihadists is the prison, which carries dangers such as the radicalization of criminals or the criminal training of religious extremists. Finally, several terrorists with a criminal history - who carried out terrorist attacks on the territory of the European Union - are also presented.