A visegrádi országok gazdasági konvergenciája

Absztrakt

Economic stagnation is a major and growing geopolitical, economic and social risk. The study seeks whether the economic development of Visegrad Countries poses higher risk within the European Union than when they joined in 2004. In the analyses, from different types of convergence, real convergence is related to economic growth and nominal convergence to economic development. Quantitative changes of economic inequalities are examined on the basis of economic output, namely gross domestic product and its PPP values for better comparability, with sigma and beta convergence. Nominal convergence in the European Union means the fulfilment of the Maastricht Criteria, so a comparative analysis is made on the basis of the Convergence Reports of the European Central Bank.
Real convergence calculations showed that within the European Union, the member states, and even the Visegrad countries, converged economically in the period 2004-2018. The countries of the Visegrad region have been catching up with the EU average, although full catching up is expected over 20 years.
The nominal convergence analysis showed a clear improvement in 2018 compared to 2004. Slovakia already fulfilled the Maastricht criteria by 2008 and introduced the euro in 2009. In the Visegrad countries, progress was occurred at the area of sound public finances as well as in the criterion of sustained convergence. Although there has been some improvement in price stability, the main challenge for non-euro area Visegrad countries will be to keep the HICP inflation rate at and below levels in the coming years.